Chapter 2 - Profile of the older population

Key Messages 

• At the end of March 2002 an estimated 463,000 people aged 65 years and over were living in New Zealand.
• Older people currently make up 12% of the total population, and will account for 26% by 2051.
• Ethnic diversity among older people decreases with age.
• The proportion of women among older people increases with age.
• Growth within the older population is highest in the 85 and over age group.
• The ageing of the population will accelerate from about 2010.

Introduction

Looking at the older population from a statistical perspective provides a useful picture of the scale and demographic make-up of the people for whom the Senior Citizens portfolio exists. For short term planning, policy development and decision-making there is a wealth of information about the current group of people aged 65 years and over, and those who are approaching older age.

The information provided in this chapter paints a picture of considerable gender, ethnic and age variation within the older population. It also gives a picture of the older population as a whole, which can be generally distinguished by such characteristics as limited ethnic diversity, a high proportion of women, low incomes, a high rate of home ownership, and a high proportion of urban dwellers.

The fact that the proportion of older people is in a long term period of growth is critical to long term planning and policy. This ageing trend will accelerate around 2010, when the first of the baby boomers reach the age of 65 years, so it does not have any immediate implications for the Senior Citizens portfolio. Most salient to the portfolio in the short to medium term is the growth in the number of people aged 85 and over, which will increase by 13%, to 59,000, between now and 2005.

Number and proportion of older people

At the end of March 2002 there were 463,000 people aged 65 years and over living in New Zealand.

The number of older people is expected to increase to around 490,000 by 2005 and to 551,000 in 2010. The rate of growth in the older population (currently just over 1% per year) will increase over the next decade, accelerating to over 3% per year after 2011 as the oldest members of the post-war baby boom generation begin turning 65.

Under medium population projections, the number of older people will reach one million by 2030, levelling off at around 1.2 million towards the middle of the century (Figure 1).

People aged 65 years and over currently make up 12% of the total population. This proportion will rise to 18% by 2021 and by mid-century, older people will make up around 26% of all New Zealand residents (Figure 1). Older people will also grow as a proportion of all householders, from around 20% in 2001 to 36% by 2051, under medium household projections.

Figure 1: Projected number and proportion of people aged 65+ 2001-2051.

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 1996-based resident population projections, assuming medium fertility and mortality, and long-term net migration of 5000 per year.

Age distribution of the older population

In March 2002, over half (54%) of all older people were aged 65-74 years, a third (35%) were aged 75-84 years and 11% were aged 85 years or older. Over the next three years, the numbers in the oldest age group are expected to increase at a faster pace than at the younger ages. By 2005, the number of people aged 85 and over will have grown by around 13%, to reach 59,000. It is the rapid growth in the number of very old people that will place the most stress on health care and community support services as the population ages.

By contrast, the population aged 65-74 is expected to increase by just 3% over the same period.

Gender distribution of older people

Because women have longer life expectancy than men, they make up the majority of the older population and their predominance increases with age. In March 2002, while women accounted for 56% of all those aged 65 and over, this proportion varied from 52% among 65-74 year olds, to 58% among 75-84 year olds, and 70% among those aged 85 and over. The gender imbalance will continue to lessen at the older ages in future because males have made greater gains in longevity than females in the last two decades.

Table 1: Age and gender distribution of 65+ population, March 2002.

Source: Statistics New Zealand, estimated resident population as at 31 March 2002; 1999-based resident population projections, medium series.

Ethnic diversity in the older population

The older population is less ethnically diverse than the population aged under 65. Only 2% of the older population identified with more than one ethnic group at the 2001 Census. This compares with 10% of those in the under 65 age group.

At the 2001 Census, 93% of people aged 65 and over affiliated with European ethnic groups. Māori comprised 4% of those aged over 65, compared with 16% of the under 65 age group. A further 2% of older people identified as Pacific people, the same proportion who reported Asian ethnicity.

The ethnic composition of the older population has been shaped by patterns of migration in past decades as well as ethnic differences in life expectancy.

For example, in 2001, almost 1 in 7 (14%) of people aged 65 and over said they were born in the United Kingdom or Ireland, compared with 4.9% of people under the age of 65. This reflects the effect of immigration policy, which gave unrestricted access to British migrants until the mid-1970s.

In all, 29% of older people counted at the 2001 Census were born overseas, compared with 22% of the population aged under 65.

Older Māori population

The Māori population aged 65 and over numbered approximately 18,000 in March 2001, an increase of 61% (6,700 persons) from 1991. Older Māori made up 3.4% of all Māori in 2001, up from 2.5% in 1991. The number and proportion of older Māori is projected to increase over the next three decades.

The representation of Māori decreases with age; in 2001, they accounted for 6% of all 65-74 year olds, 3% of 75-84 year olds and just 2% of those aged 85 and over.

Almost three-quarters of older Māori (74%) are aged between 65-74 years, a further 22% are aged 75-84 and just 4% are 85 or older.

Older Pacific people

At the 2001 Census, there were 7,600 older Pacific people. The number of older Pacific people doubled over the decade to 2001 and is projected to increase rapidly over the next two decades.

Older Pacific people accounted for 3% of the total Pacific people population in 2001; this proportion will increase to 4% by 2011, and to 8% by 2031. They have a similar age structure to that of older Māori, with 71% aged 65-74, 25% aged 75-84, and 4% aged 85 plus.

Older Pacific people currently account for just 1.8% of all older people. This proportion is expected to rise slowly but steadily over the next three decades. Fewer than 1% of the very old population aged 85 plus are Pacific people, compared with 2% of those aged 65-74. The vast majority of older Pacific people migrated to New Zealand; at the 2001 Census, only 4% were New Zealand born.

Older Asian population

The Asian population in New Zealand is also relatively young, with just 4% aged 65 and over. This is not unexpected, given that many of the Asian groups consist of recent immigrants to New Zealand, who are largely people in the main working ages. In 2001, 93% of the older Asian population were born overseas.

Languages spoken

While the majority of older people are English language speakers, around 40,000 older people (9%) are able to speak two or more languages (2001 Census). The proportion of multilingual speakers is highest at the younger age groups, declining from 12% among 65-74 year olds, to 7% among 75- 84 year olds and 5% of the population aged 85 and over. The most frequent languages spoken after English are shown in the table below.

Source: Statistics New Zealand. 2001 Census of Population and Dwellings. National Summary. Table 14

A small proportion of all older people were Māori language speakers in 2001 (3%). Among older Māori, more than half (54%) were Māori language speakers, twice the proportion in the 15-64 year age group. At the time of the 2001 Census, 9,771 older people were non-English speakers (2% of the older population).

Dependency ratios

A dependency ratio compares the size of the working age population with the size of the populations of younger and older people. It makes the assumption that the non-working age population is dependent on the working age population for support.

There are currently 18 people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 15 to 64 years. By 2011, the older dependency ratio is expected to be 21 per 100, rising rapidly thereafter to reach 38 per 100 in 2031 (Table 3). Over the next decade increased aged dependency will be offset by falling youth dependency. From 2011, however, rising dependency at the older ages will increase the overall dependency within the population. This ratio is then expected to rise from 50 to 67 per 100 by the year 2031. If only people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 15-64 those people in the labour force are included in the population on whom the older population is potentially dependent, the ratio rises to 25 per 100 in 2011 and 45 per 100 in 2031.

Table 3: Dependency ratios, 2001 to 2051

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, 1999-based resident population projections; 1996-based labour force projections (assuming medium fertility, medium mortality, long-term annual net migration 5,000, medium labour force participation rates); Household Labour Force Survey.

The changing ratio of older people to potential carers outside the labour force is an issue that will need to be addressed in the medium future. In the past, middle-aged adult daughters have provided such care on an unpaid basis.

The changing ratio of older people to potential carers is an emerging issue However, changes in women's labour force participation, delayed childbearing, smaller families and increased geographical mobility among older people have reduced the capacity of daughters to provide such care. There is currently just over one person aged 75 or more for each person aged 45-64 years who is not in the labour force and could potentially provide support.

The ratio will change rapidly from about 2020 and by 2031 there will be almost two people aged 75 and over for each non-labour force person aged 45-64 years. These ratios assume that current labour force participation rates of women and men continue.

Marital status

At the 2001 Census, the majority of older people (88%) were either married or widowed, reflecting the high levels of marriage and lower incidence of separation and divorce among older cohorts.

Over half (55%) were currently married, the proportion being higher at the younger ages and among men. Among those aged 65-74 years, 76% of men and 57% of women were married. Only 9% of men in this age group were widowed, as opposed to 30% of women. Over the age of 85 years, 43% of men were widowed, compared to 81% of women. This difference can be attributed to the longer life expectancy of women, together with the tendency for men to be married to women younger than themselves.

A significant trend in the marital status of older people is the growth in the number of people who are either divorced or separated. Between 1971 and 2001, the proportion of older people who were separated or divorced increased from 3% to 9% among those aged 65-74 years, and from 1% to 2% among those aged 85 and over. These proportions can be expected to grow as the generations of New Zealanders affected by higher rates of separation and divorce in recent decades enter the older age groups.

Another emerging trend is the growth of cohabitation among older people. The number of women and men aged 65 years and over who were living in de facto relationships trebled between 1991-2001. While making up a small proportion of older people overall (2%), this is likely to grow in future decades.

Older people who have had children

The current older population, which includes the parents of the baby boom generation, is more likely to have had children than older people of the previous generation. A question in the 1981 Census showed that 79% of women aged 65 and over had had at least one child; the proportion in the 1996 Census was 87%.

Older people today are also more likely to have had larger families than more recent cohorts of women. In 1996, women aged 60-64 years were estimated to have had 3.24 children on average over their lifetime. This compares with 2.47 children for women aged 45-49 years. To the extent to which children are a potential source of care for parents in older age, the current older population may be relatively favoured in this respect.

Education

The proportion of older people with formal qualifications is likely to increase in future years as younger generations who have benefited from higher participation in education enter the older ages. Just over half of older people (54%) had a formal qualification in 2001, compared with three-quarters of the 15-64 year old population.

Gender disparities in the qualifications of older people are also likely to reduce. In 2001, 49% of older women and 43% of older men had no formal qualifications.

Employment

Prior employment history is likely to influence the economic circumstances of the older population. Since the age of eligibility for retirement income support began rising in 1992, the number and proportion of people in their early 60s who are employed has more than doubled.

Full-time employment has increased more than part-time employment. In March 2002, 55% of men aged 60-64 were employed full-time, an increase from 25% in March 1992. A further 12% of men were employed part-time in 2002, up from 8% in 1992 (Figure 2).

The proportion of women aged 60-64 years who were employed full-time increased from 8% to 21% between March 1992 and March 2002, while the proportion employed part-time rose from 7% to 20%. In total, 41% of women aged 60-64 were employed either full-time or part-time in March 2002, compared to 66% of men.

The full-time employment rate of men in their late 50s has recovered slightly from a low point in 1992-93 but at 74% in March 2002, it was still at a lower level than in 1986 (83%). For women of this age group, the fulltime employment rate has increased from 26% in March 1986 to 36% in March 2002.

As a result of the growth of women's employment, the proportion of all 55- 59 year olds employed full-time has recovered to 1986 levels (55%). In March 2002, women made up 33% of full-time employed people aged 55- 59, an increase from 23% in March 1986.

Figure 2: Proportion of 55-64 year olds employed full-time 1986 to 2001

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey.

The number of people aged 65 years and over in paid employment has more than doubled since 1991. In the week before the 2001 Census, 49,935 people or 11% of those aged 65 and over were in paid employment. Participation was highest at the younger ages with 17% of 65-74 year olds in paid employment, falling to 5% for those aged 75-84 and 3% for the 85 and over population. The proportion of older persons in paid employment has risen considerably since 1991, when only 9% of those aged 65-74 years were employed.

Unpaid work

Many older people are involved in unpaid activities, either inside or outside of the home. In the four weeks preceding the 2001 Census, 17% of people aged 65 and over had been involved in voluntary work such as for an organisation, group or marae. This proportion is highest (21%) for the 65-74 year age group.

Almost three-quarters of older people had done housework in their own household while 6% had spent time caring for a members of their household who was ill or had a disability. Some older people also spent time caring for children, including a child living in their own household (4%) and a child who lived in another household (9%). Among people aged 65-69 years the proportions are 7% and 16% respectively.

Income

Reflecting their lower levels of employment, older people have lower incomes, on average, than adults in the main working ages of 15-64. In the year prior to the 2001 Census, the median annual income of people over 65 years (from all sources, before tax) was $13,100, compared to $18,500 for all adult New Zealanders. One-quarter of older people had annual income of $10,000 or less, while just 5% received income of more than $40,000.

The level of earnings among older people varies by gender and across ethnic groups. In the 12 months before the Census, median income for older males was $13,600 compared with $12,800 for older females. The gender difference reduces with age, falling from $1,500 among 65-74 year olds to $600 among the population aged 85 years and over.

While most of the usually resident population aged 65 and over received New Zealand Superannuation (93%), more than half of older people received income from other sources. This includes income from interest, dividends and rent (40%) and income from other superannuation and annuities (15%). Men were more likely to receive income from other superannuation and annuities (20%, compared with 11% for women).

A small proportion (6%) of older people reported that they had received income from wages and salaries in the 12 months prior to the Census, while 6% had received income from self-employment. The 65-69 year age group was the most likely to have received income from wages and salaries (14%) and self employment (12%).

Living arrangements

Most older people live independently in their own homes, either with a spouse or on their own.

In 2001, one-third of older people were living on their own, and almost three-quarters were women. Around 14,500 women aged 85 years and over were living in a single person household in 2001, or 68% of women in this age group. At the time of the Census, around 50,000 respondents aged 65 or over (13%) said they usually lived with their children.

Home ownership

Home ownership is high among older New Zealanders, with three-quarters of older persons owning or part owning their own home at the 2001 Census. More than half of the 85 and over population owned or part owned their own home in 2001. In part, this reflects past government policies that fostered home ownership through low-interest loans and the capitalisation of family benefit. The proportion of older people who own their own home has declined since the 1996 Census from 81% to 75%.

Older people in non-private dwellings

In 2001, a small proportion (7%) of the older population was living in nonprivate dwellings. Of these, 81% were living in a retirement home or residential care facility while 9% were living in hospitals. The likelihood of living in non-private dwellings increases with age, rising from 2% of 65-74 year olds, to 30% of the population aged over 85.

Older women are more likely to live in non-private dwellings than older men, reflecting the lower propensity of women to live with a partner at the older ages. At the time of the 2001 Census, 8% of women and 4% of men were living in non-private dwellings such as a retirement village, a residential care facility or hospital.

In 2001, women made up 55% of the 65-74 age group, and 80% of those aged 85 and over, living in a retirement home or residential care facility.

Access to telephone and internet

Virtually all older people (98%) reported that they had access to a telephone in the 2001 Census.

Around one in six older people (15%) were living in households that had access to the internet, with men more likely to report access (19%) than women (12%). Internet access declines with age from 21% among 65-74 year olds to 11% among 75-84 year olds and 7% for those aged 85 and over. At ages 65-69, almost half of Asian and "other" ethnic group older people had access to the internet, compared with 1 in 4 Europeans and 1 in 8 Pacific and Māori older people.

Approximately 1% (5700) of older people stated that they lived in a household that did not have telephone, fax or internet access at the 2001 Census.

Motor vehicle access

Being able to travel both within the community and to other areas is likely to be an important indicator of the degree of independence among the older population. The majority of older people (84%) stated that they had access to at least one motor vehicle (2001 Census).

The proportion declines with age: 91% of 65-74 year olds have access to a motor vehicle compared with 79% of 75-84 year olds and 55% of people aged 85 and over. Males are much more likely to report having access to a motor vehicle than females (92%, compared with 78%).

Older people in rural areas

Older people are slightly less likely than the population as a whole to live in rural areas (11%, compared with 14%). At the time of the 2001 Census, more than two-thirds lived in major urban areas, around a fifth in secondary or minor urban areas (Table 4).

The likelihood of living in a rural area was greater among the younger age group 65-74 years than among those aged 85 and over. This may reflect the fact that the very old are more likely to require access to the services and amenities available in urban areas.

Older Māori are more likely than older non-Māori to live in rural areas. In 2001, one quarter of Māori aged 65 and over lived in rural areas, compared with 10% of non-Māori of that age. Access to health and other services is therefore likely to be more difficult for Māori.

Table 4: Urban and rural distribution of older people, 2001[1]

Endnotes

1. Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001 Census Regional Summary Table 2 Table 2a. (Main urban areas: populations of 30,000 or more; Secondary urban areas: population 10,000-29,999; Minor urban areas: population 1,000-9,999; Rural centres: population 300-999; Rural other: includes rural areas with populations less than 300 and other places not included in urban areas.)

References

Davey, J. (1998). Tracking Social Change in New Zealand: From Birth to Death IV, Wellington: Institute of Policy Studies.
Social Policy Agency (1999). Social Environment Scan. Wellington: Department of Social Welfare.
Statistics New Zealand (1998). New Zealand Now - 65 Plus. Wellington.
Statistics New Zealand (2001). Population Monitor (web document, www.stats.govt.nz).
Statistics New Zealand (2002). Older People. 2001 Census Snapshot 9.
Statistics New Zealand (2002). 2001 Census. National Summary.
Statistics New Zealand (2002) 2001 Census. Regional Summary.
Te Puni Kōkiri (1999). Fact Sheet 2, Kaumātua.