Part one: Overview - older New Zealanders today and tomorrow

The older population is growing faster

The number of older New Zealanders is predicted to double by 2030

People aged 65 years and over currently make up 12% of the total population. This proportion will rise to 17% by 2021. By 2044, older people will make up around 26% of all New Zealand residents (Figure 1.1). Population projections indicate that by 2051 there will be 322,000 people aged over 85 years, accounting for 24% of the older population.

At the end of March 2005, an estimated 494,500 people aged 65 years and over were living in New Zealand. This number is expected to increase to 586,600 by 2011. The rate of growth in the older population is currently just under 1% per year. This rate will accelerate to over 3% per year after 2011, as the oldest members of the post-war baby boom generation begin turning 65. It is projected that the number of older people will reach one million by 2028, levelling off at around 1.3 million towards the middle of the century.

Figure 1.1 Projected number and proportion of people aged 65+, 2004-2051

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2004-based resident population projections, Series 5, assuming medium fertility and mortality, and long-term net migration of 10,000 per year.

While the rapid growth in the older-old population, i.e. those over 85 years of age, will place stress on health care and community support services, younger cohorts of older people will continue to contribute to the economy by working past the traditional age of retirement.

There are more women than men in the older population

Women still have longer life expectancy than men

Because women have longer life expectancy than men, they make up the majority of the older population. Their predominance in the older population increases with age.

Table 1.1 Age and gender distribution of 65+ population, March 2005

Source: Statistics New Zealand, estimated resident population as at 31 March 2005; 2005-based resident population projections, Series 5.

While women currently account for 56% of all those aged 65 and over, this proportion increases with age, with women aged 85 years and over outnumbering their male counterparts by more than two to one. The gender imbalance has, however, decreased in recent years, and will continue to lessen for older people in the future. This is because men have made greater gains in longevity in the last two decades than women.

Ethnic diversity will increase as the population ages

The ethnic mix of older people will change significantly

The older population is less ethnically diverse than the population aged under 65. In the 2001 Census, only 2% of the older population identified with more than one ethnic group, compared with 10% of those aged under 65. However, this ethnic mix will change significantly over the next few decades.

In 2001, 93% of people aged 65 and over affiliated with European ethnic groups. Māori comprised 4% of those aged over 65, compared with 16% of those aged under 65. A further 2% of older people identified as coming from the Pacific Islands, and another 2% were of Asian ethnicity.

The ethnic composition of the older population has been shaped by patterns of migration in past decades, as well as ethnic differences in life expectancy. For example, in 2001, almost one in seven (14%) people aged 65 and over said they were born in the United Kingdom or Ireland, compared with 4.9% of people under the age of 65. This reflects the effect of immigration policy, which gave unrestricted access to British migrants until the mid-1970s. In all, 29% of older people were born overseas, compared with 22% of people aged under 65.

Māori in the older population

Proportions of older Māori, older Pacific peoples and older Asians in the popluation will increase significantly

The Māori population aged 65 and over numbered approximately 18,000 in March 2001, an increase of 61% (6,700 people) from 1991. Older Māori made up 3.4% of all Māori in 2001, up from 2.5% in 1991. The number of Māori aged 65 years and over is projected to nearly treble between 2001 and 2021, from 20,000 to 57,000. By 2021, they will account for 8% of all Māori, compared with 3% in 2001.

The representation of Māori decreases with age: in 2001, they accounted for 6% of all 65-74 year olds, 3% of 75-84 year olds and 2% of those aged 85 and over. Due to lower life expectancy rates than for New Zealand Europeans, almost three‑quarters of older Māori (74%) are aged between 65-74 years, a further 22% are aged 75-84, and 4% are 85 or older.

Pacific peoples in the older population

At the 2001 Census, there were 7,600 older Pacific people. The number of older Pacific peoples doubled over the decade to 2001, and is projected to nearly treble between 2001 and 2021, from 9,000 to 25,000.

Older Pacific peoples accounted for 3% of the total Pacific population in 2001. This proportion will increase to 4% by 2011, and to 8% by 2031. Pacific peoples have a similar age structure to that of older Māori, with 71% aged 65-74, 25% aged 75-84, and 4% aged 85 or over.

Pacific older people currently account for just 1.7% of all older people. This proportion is expected to rise slowly but steadily over the next three decades. Pacific peoples currently comprise less than 1% of the population aged 85 and over, compared with 2% of those aged 65-74. The vast majority of older Pacific peoples migrated to New Zealand: in 2001, only 4% were born here.

Asian people in the older population

The Asian population in New Zealand is also relatively young, with 4% aged 65 and over. This is not unexpected, given that many of the Asian groups consist of recent immigrants to New Zealand, who are largely people of working age. In 2001, 93% of the older Asian population were born overseas. In 2004, the Asian population made up 2.3% of all older people.

The number of Asian people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 55,000 by 2021, five times the 2001 population of 11,000. By 2021, they will account for 9% of all Asian people, compared with 4% in 2001.

Languages spoken by older people

While the majority of older people are English language speakers, around 40,000 of older people (9%) were able to speak two or more languages at the time of the 2001 Census. The proportion of multilingual speakers is highest in the younger age groups, declining from 12% among 65-74 year olds to 7% among 75-84 year olds and 5% of people aged 85 and over. Table 1.2 shows the most frequently spoken languages after English.

Table 1.2 Main languages spoken among the older population, 2001

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001 Census of Population and Dwellings, National Summary, Table 14

A small proportion of all older people were Māori language speakers in 2001 (3%). Among older Māori, more than half (54%) were Māori language speakers, twice the proportion in the 15–64-year age group. Two percent of the older population, or 9,771 people, were non-English speakers.

Relationships are changing among older people

Currently more older people are married compared to younger people

Separation and divorce among older people are increasing

Cohabitation is likely to increase

In 2001, the majority of older people (88%) were either married or widowed, reflecting the higher levels of marriage and lower incidence of separation and divorce among older cohorts. Over half (55%) were married, the proportion being higher among younger ages and among men. Seventy-six percent of men and 57% of women aged 65-74 were married, while 9% of men and 30% of women were widowed. Over the age of 85 years, 43% of men were widowed, compared to 81% of women. This difference can be attributed to the longer life expectancy of women, along with the tendency for men to be married to women younger than themselves.

A significant trend in the marital status of older people is the growth in the number of people who are separated or divorced. Between 1971 and 2001, the proportion of older people who were separated or divorced increased from 3% to 9% among those aged 65-74, and from 1% to 2% among those aged 85 and over. These proportions can be expected to grow as the generations of New Zealanders affected by higher rates of separation and divorce in recent decades enter older age.

Another emerging trend is the growth of cohabitation among older people. The number of women and men aged 65 and over who were living in de facto relationships trebled between 1991 and 2001. While making up a small proportion of older people overall (2%), this proportion is likely to grow in future decades.

Older people who have had children

Older people are more likely to have had bigger families than the younger population

The current older population includes the parents of the baby boom generation, and is more likely to have had children than older people of the previous generation. A question in the 1981 Census showed that 79% of women aged 65 and over had had at least one child; the proportion in the 1996 Census was 87%.

Older people today are also more likely to have had larger families than the younger population. In 1996, women aged 60-64 years were estimated to have had 3.24 children on average over their lifetime, compared with 2.47 children for women aged 45-49. As children can be a potential source of care for their parents in older age, the current older population may be relatively favoured in this respect.

Grandparents raising grandchildren

Older people caring for their grandchildren need greater support

In the 2001 Census, over 4,000 children were being parented by their grandparents. In New Zealand , as in many western countries, kinship care is the preferred option for out-of-home placement of children needing care. Grandparents, in particular, are assuming custody of their grandchildren.

While it may be normal for grandparents in many cultures to play a part in the raising of their grandchildren, those who take total responsibility for the care of children who have suffered abuse or neglect often find this situation stressful and demanding. The demands can frequently overwhelm grandparents' emotional and financial resources.

Work is needed to improve the policies and services provided to grandparents who are aged over 65. Considerable hardship is being experienced by grandparents who care for children and rely on New Zealand Superannuation as their only source of income. It is essential that older people who take on care responsibilities for children at this stage in their lives are supported in their roles, and that the children are not disadvantaged.

Asian people in the older population

The Asian population in New Zealand is also relatively young, with 4% aged 65 and over. This is not unexpected, given that many of the Asian groups consist of recent immigrants to New Zealand, who are largely people of working age. In 2001, 93% of the older Asian population were born overseas. In 2004, the Asian population made up 2.3% of all older people.

The number of Asian people aged 65 years and over is projected to reach 55,000 by 2021, five times the 2001 population of 11,000. By 2021, they will account for 9% of all Asian people, compared with 4% in 2001.

Languages spoken by older people

While the majority of older people are English language speakers, around 40,000 of older people (9%) were able to speak two or more languages at the time of the 2001 Census. The proportion of multilingual speakers is highest in the younger age groups, declining from 12% among 65-74 year olds to 7% among 75-84 year olds and 5% of people aged 85 and over. Table 1.2 shows the most frequently spoken languages after English.

Table 1.2 Main languages spoken among the older population, 2001

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001 Census of Population and Dwellings, National Summary, Table 14

A small proportion of all older people were Māori language speakers in 2001 (3%). Among older Māori, more than half (54%) were Māori language speakers, twice the proportion in the 15-64 year age group. Two percent of the older population, or 9,771 people, were non-English speakers.

Relationships are changing among older people

Currently more older people are married compared to younger people

Separation and divorce among older people are increasing

Cohabitation is likely to increase

In 2001, the majority of older people (88%) were either married or widowed, reflecting the higher levels of marriage and lower incidence of separation and divorce among older cohorts. Over half (55%) were married, the proportion being higher among younger ages and among men. Seventy-six percent of men and 57% of women aged 65-74 were married, while 9% of men and 30% of women were widowed. Over the age of 85 years, 43% of men were widowed, compared to 81% of women. This difference can be attributed to the longer life expectancy of women, along with the tendency for men to be married to women younger than themselves.

A significant trend in the marital status of older people is the growth in the number of people who are separated or divorced. Between 1971 and 2001, the proportion of older people who were separated or divorced increased from 3% to 9% among those aged 65-74, and from 1% to 2% among those aged 85 and over. These proportions can be expected to grow as the generations of New Zealanders affected by higher rates of separation and divorce in recent decades enter older age.

Another emerging trend is the growth of cohabitation among older people. The number of women and men aged 65 and over who were living in de facto relationships trebled between 1991 and 2001. While making up a small proportion of older people overall (2%), this proportion is likely to grow in future decades.

Older people who have had children

Older people are more likely to have had bigger families than the younger populationThe current older population includes the parents of the baby boom generation, and is more likely to have had children than older people of the previous generation. A question in the 1981 Census showed that 79% of women aged 65 and over had had at least one child; the proportion in the 1996 Census was 87%.

Older people today are also more likely to have had larger families than the younger population. In 1996, women aged 60-64 years were estimated to have had 3.24 children on average over their lifetime, compared with 2.47 children for women aged 45–49. As children can be a potential source of care for their parents in older age, the current older population may be relatively favoured in this respect.

Grandparents raising grandchildren

In the 2001 Census, over 4,000 children were being parented by their grandparents. In New Zealand, as in many western countries, kinship care is the preferred option for out-of-home placement of children needing care. Grandparents, in particular, are assuming custody of their grandchildren.

Older people caring for their grandchildren need greater supportWhile it may be normal for grandparents in many cultures to play a part in the raising of their grandchildren, those who take total responsibility for the care of children who have suffered abuse or neglect often find this situation stressful and demanding. The demands can frequently overwhelm grandparents' emotional and financial resources.

Work is needed to improve the policies and services provided to grandparents who are aged over 65. Considerable hardship is being experienced by grandparents who care for children and rely on New Zealand Superannuation as their only source of income. It is essential that older people who take on care responsibilities for children at this stage in their lives are supported in their roles, and that the children are not disadvantaged.

More older people are working

The pattern of older people retiring from the workforce at the time they qualified for New Zealand Superannuation is beginning to change. As people born in the 1950s and 1960s turn 65 and reach what would previously have been retirement age, they may choose to extend their working lives.

People aged 65 and over

More older people are working past the age of 65 The number of people aged 65 and over in paid employment more than doubled between 1991 and 2001. In 2001, 11% of people aged 65 and over (49,935 persons) were in paid employment. The percentages by age group were: 17% of 65-74 year olds (up from 9% in 1991); 5% of 75-84 year olds; and 3% of people aged 85 and over (Figure 1.2).

Employment levels drop as age increases, from 22% of 65-69 year olds employed to 3% of those aged 85 or over. The drop is particularly sharp between the 65-69 and 70-74 year age groups.

Women are consistently less likely to be employed than men at all ages over 65. In 2001, around 7% of women aged 65 and over were employed, compared with 17% of men. Nearly one in three men and one in six women aged 65-69 were employed.

Figure 1.2 Employment rate for people aged 65 and over, 2001

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Census of Population and Dwellings, 2001

Part-time work has always been common among people aged 65 and over. Between 1986 and 2001, the proportion of employed older people working part-time grew by nearly one-third, from 40.6% to 53.1% (Figure 1.3). In 2001, 45.6% of employed men, and 67.6% of employed women, aged 65 and over worked part-time.

Figure 1.3 Part-time employment status for employed people aged 65 and over, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Census of Population and Dwellings, 2001

Current Trends: people aged 60-64

More 60-64 year olds are working than 12 years ago

Since the age of eligibility for retirement income support began rising in 1992, the employment rate for people aged 60-64 has more than doubled for men and trebled for women (Figure 1.4). In 2004:

• 45% of women and 67% of men aged 60-64 were employed full-time or part-time
• 57% of men aged 60-64 were employed full-time, compared to 25% in March 1992
• 10% of men aged 60-64 were employed part-time, compared to 8% in March 1992
• 27% of women aged 60-64 were employed full-time, compared to 8% in March 1992
• 18% of women aged 60-64 were employed part-time, compared to 8% in March 1992

Future Trends: people aged 55-59

More 55-59 year olds, particularly women, are working

The proportion of 55-59 year olds employed full-time in 2004 (61%) has surpassed 1986 levels (55%). The growth in employment among women aged 55-59 is a primary reason for this increase. In March 1986, women made up 23% of the full-time employed aged 55-59; in 2004, that rate had increased to 37%. The full-time employment rate for women of this age group increased from 26% to 44% over the same period, 1986-2004.

The full-time employment rate of men aged 55-59 stood at 82% in 1986, hit a low point of 66% in 1992, and was up to 77% in 2004; an improvement, but still not back to the 1986 rate.

Figure 1.4 Proportion of 55-64 year olds employed full-time, 1986-2004

Source: Statistics New Zealand , Household Labour Force Survey

Education and access to technology are increasing among older people

Around one in six older people have internet access

The proportion of older people with formal qualifications is likely to increase in future years, as younger generations who have benefited from higher participation in education enter older age. In 2001, just over half of older people (54%) had a formal qualification, compared with three-quarters of the population aged 15-64. Gender disparities in the qualifications of older people are also likely to reduce. In 2001, 49% of older women and 43% of older men had no formal qualifications.

In the 2001 Census, virtually all older people (98%) reported that they had access to a telephone. Around one in six older people (17%) were living in households that had access to the internet, with men more likely to report access (19%) than women (12%). Internet access declines with age, from 21% among 65-74 year olds to 11% among 75-84 year olds and 7% among those aged 85 and over.

At ages 65-69, almost half of Asian and other ethnic group older people had access to the internet, compared with a quarter of Europeans and an eighth of Pacific and Māori older people.

Approximately 1% of older people stated that they lived in a household that did not have telephone, fax or internet access.

This section provided a picture of older people today. Information included a consideration of how and why the population is ageing, as well as how older people themselves are changing as the baby boom generation moves into middle and later life. The next section considers the policy needed to respond to the issues and challenges of this rapidly changing landscape of older people in New Zealand.